BMI cuts platinum and palladium targets while WPIC calls a surplus — and still bets platinum beats gold

Two of the more closely watched voices in platinum group metals put out competing signals this week, and bullion buyers are left to reconcile them.

BMI, the Fitch Solutions research unit, trimmed its 2026 forecasts. It now sees platinum averaging $1,900 an ounce, down from $2,000, and palladium at $1,400, cut from $1,500. The reasons: a weaker outlook for car sales, which drives autocatalyst demand, and a faster-than-expected recovery in South African mine output.

But BMI did not turn bearish on the whole story. It still expects both metals to finish 2026 in a supply deficit, and it thinks platinum pulls further ahead of palladium as the decade wears on. From 2028 the two flip positions, with BMI penciling platinum up to roughly $2,100 in 2028 and higher after that.

The World Platinum Investment Council went the other way on the near-term balance. In its latest Platinum Quarterly, the WPIC now models a modest 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026 — a notable swing from its prior call for a 297,000-ounce deficit.

That sounds bearish on its face, yet the WPIC's message was constructive. Edward Sterck, the council's director of research, told Kitco that platinum's underlying fundamentals stay relatively tight and that investment demand should build through the second half of the year. His bigger argument: platinum could outperform gold if the so-called debasement trade — money moving into hard assets on fiscal and currency concerns — picks up again.

Then there's the supply side, which rarely moves in a straight line. Sibanye-Stillwater said it is weighing a restructuring of the ageing Kwezi shaft at its South African PGM operations, a move that could affect 1,114 jobs. The shaft is near the end of its life and is forecast to lose money in the second half of 2026. Cuts like that are exactly the kind of thing that can tighten supply faster than spreadsheet forecasts assume.

Spot prices reflected the tension. Platinum was quoted near $1,973 an ounce alongside a broad metals surge — gold futures around $4,713 and silver up sharply — which tells you the macro bid for hard assets is very much alive.

For someone buying physical platinum or palladium, the takeaway is that the forecasts disagree on the exact 2026 balance but broadly agree platinum has the stronger structural setup into the back half of the decade. Palladium remains the more fragile of the pair, leaning heavily on internal combustion demand that keeps eroding as electrification advances.