Gold Heads for Third Weekly Loss as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Near 70%

Gold is on course for a third straight weekly decline, an unusual stretch driven by something the metal rarely faces: a central bank widely expected to raise rates rather than cut them.

A hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price report landed this week alongside crude oil pushing above $100 a barrel and firmer Treasury yields. Together they lifted market odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week's meeting to roughly 70%, according to reporting from Mining.com. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding metal that pays no yield, and gold felt it.

Spot gold fell more than 2% over the week, dipping to around $4,326.88 an ounce early Friday, per Reuters. It then clawed back. By mid-Friday, Investing.com reported spot gold up 1.7% at $4,390.39, with futures near $4,432.30, as the market digested the inflation numbers rather than sold them further.

Silver has moved in step. Kitco data earlier in the week put spot silver near $65.74 an ounce as the same oil-and-yields pressure weighed on non-yielding metals. The broader mining complex took a harder hit — Comex December copper tumbled as much as 5.4% Thursday after a report that the White House copper tariff plan had stalled, snapping a record-setting run and dragging mining equities down with it.

What makes this pullback stand out is the policy backdrop. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized that policymakers are training their attention on getting inflation under control at next week's two-day gathering, which wraps Wednesday. That messaging is the engine behind the hike speculation, and it flips the usual script for gold, which typically rallies when easing is on the table.

For someone buying physical bullion, the read is straightforward: prices have retreated from record-adjacent levels heading into a genuinely pivotal Fed decision. The Friday rebound shows the dip is not a one-way move, but the near-term direction likely hinges on whether the Fed actually delivers a hike and how hawkish its guidance sounds afterward.