Bernstein and BMI Hold Bullish Gold Calls as the Fed Signals Another Hike

Gold sold off on a hawkish Fed, and two of the market's forecasters shrugged.

Bernstein cut its long-term price target but kept a firmly bullish stance, arguing something that cuts against convention: gold can keep advancing even while real interest rates rise. Normally higher real yields hurt gold, because they raise the opportunity cost of owning a metal that throws off no cash. Bernstein's rebuttal is that today's price is set at the margin by buyers who don't optimize around yields — central banks and geopolitical hedgers. The firm's analyst flagged a slowdown in central-bank buying as the main risk to the thesis, and noted that stubbornly high diesel and refined-product prices could keep inflation hot and feed expectations for more hikes. He also raised a political wildcard: a loss of the Trump administration's congressional majority in the midterms could trim safe-haven demand.

BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, held its 2026 average forecast at $4,400 an ounce, pointing to geopolitical risk and ongoing central-bank purchases as support that should keep a floor near $3,800.

The timing sharpens the point. The Fed just lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled another move could come before year-end, joining recent hikes from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. The dollar strengthened and gold sentiment cooled. Silver fell 0.6% to $66.70 an ounce and platinum dropped 1% to $1,815.11.

For a US buyer paying in dollars, the story is cleaner than in most foreign markets — there's no currency conversion muddying the spot price. That also means the full weight of a stronger dollar and higher real yields lands directly on what you pay. The bull case here rests squarely on whether official-sector demand keeps absorbing supply faster than rate-sensitive sellers can push prices down.