Gold Breaks $4,300 Support — Yet TD and BMO Still Call the Bull Case Alive

Gold slipped below $4,300 an ounce this week, cracking a support level traders had been defending, as elevated interest rates kept the heat on non-yielding assets. The sell-off was real — but the research crossing desks tells a two-sided story worth unpacking for anyone buying physical metal.

Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, wrote on September 23 that gold's downside looks limited from current levels. In his view, the setup favors another attempt above $5,000, because investment demand for the metal has stayed resilient even with the Federal Reserve's rate stance acting as a headwind.

BMO Capital Markets took a more layered position. As the fourth quarter of 2026 opened, its commodity analysts cut near-term price forecasts, singling out silver: faster-than-expected thrifting — using less metal per application — plus slower solar buildout are easing the industrial demand that had tightened the market. They expect silver to lag gold over the next several quarters.

But BMO's long-range call went the other way. The bank pushed its long-term silver average up to about $47 an ounce, a 31% increase from its prior $36 figure. That is a substantial upward revision of where the firm believes silver eventually settles.

For a U.S. bullion buyer, the practical read is that near-term price swings and a structurally higher floor can hold at the same time. The dollar's direction and the Fed's rate path will govern spot in the interim, while the banks' longer-term math suggests the base under both metals is being marked higher, not lower.