Gold Slides Under $4,300 as Wall Street Splits Three Ways on What Comes Next

A week ago the pros were all on one side. After gold fell through $4,300, they scattered. The latest Kitco News Gold Survey put 14 analysts almost evenly across three outcomes — 36% bullish, 29% bearish and 36% expecting a volatile sideways range — a sharp reversal from the prior week's unanimous bullish read.

Main Street didn't follow them off the fence. Kitco's retail poll held a bullish majority, the usual split between smaller buyers who see a dip as an opening and institutions pulling back to reassess.

The charts are driving the professional caution. Gold closed below its 200-day moving average, a level traders treat as a trend marker, pushing a critical support zone into focus according to a Société Générale note. Softer US inflation data eased some immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight, yet elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar capped the rebound.

That yield dynamic is the crux for a US buyer. Non-yielding metal competes directly with Treasuries, so when yields stay high the opportunity cost of holding gold rises — one reason the bounce has struggled even with inflation cooling. If the Fed's path tilts dovish on soft jobs data, that pressure can ease quickly.

The medium-term story isn't broken, by several banks' reading. They cast the decline as a correction within a longer uptrend, with targets still ranging from $4,000 support talk to $5,000 into 2027. For physical buyers, US dealers often see demand pick up on pullbacks, which can keep premiums on American Eagles, Maple Leafs and common bars sticky even when spot dips.